TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6935 and 0.6965. The AUDUSD has retraced above the moving averages and the moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, all signalling that downside momentum is weakening – the recent downtrend could becoming to an end. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around either of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6910 and 0.6865.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today. Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to move higher and be bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8745, 0.8685 and 0.8650.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1180 and has since swung lower. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1175, 1.1180, 1.1215 and 1.1220. Price could continue to find support around the horizontal support at 1.1150.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2865 and 1.2905.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6565, 0.6570, 0.6580 and 0.6590.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bearish and has re-entered the consolidation area. The moving averages continue to cross frequently and move sideways, suggesting market indecision. Price action has formed a bullish channel though, signalling that the USDCAD may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3415, 1.3405, 1.3380 and 1.3375. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3505.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support areas and around the horizontal level at 1.0095. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0130, 1.0155, 1.0165 and 1.0170.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price reversed around the moving averages and has recently found resistance around 110.30 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.05, 109.70, 109.55 and 109.25. A bullish move may find resistance around 110.30, 110.90 and 111.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has continued to be bearish. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1269, 1278, 1280, 1282, 1286, 1288, 1288.50, 1290 and 1294.

 

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