TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 16, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965 and 0.6995. The AUDUSD could find support around the recent lows at 0.6910.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to uptrend and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8685.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the moving averages and the horizontal levels at 1.1215 and 1.1220. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1125, 1.1150, 1.1175, 1.1180, 1.1215, 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move lower and be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2865, 1.2905 and 1.2940.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is now bullish though and is attempting a move above the moving averages, suggesting that the downtrend could becoming to an end. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6565, 0.6570, 0.6590, 0.6610 and 0.6645.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 1.3485 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3375, 1.3385, 1.3415, 1.3485 and 1.3495.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1515 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price attempting to swing lower and has found support around the recent swing low. The USDCHF has become indecisive and is ranging between 1.0050 and 1.0095. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the previous horizontal support at 1.0130.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY is now ranging between 109.05 and 109.70. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.05 and 110.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1278, 1280, 1282, 1286, 1288, 1290, 1293.50, 1299 and 1301.50.

 

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