TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 15, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965 and 0.6990.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8645 and 0.8620. The EURGBP could continue to find resistance around 0.8685.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bearish. Price has swung below the trend support area and below the moving averages, all suggesting that the recent uptrend has come to an end. The EURUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.1120, 1.1150, 1.1175, 1.1215, 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2940, 1.2980 and 1.3035. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2905 and 1.2865.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has moved below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that price may become bearish. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6570, 0.6590 and 0.6610.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.3485. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3375, 1.3380, 1.3415, 1.3485, 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian CPI figure will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.0130 and 1.0155. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.0050.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – the are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 109.10, 110.05, 110.30 and 110.90. The USDJPY could start ranging between 109.10 and 110.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1290, 1288.50, 1288, 1286 and 1280. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1302.

 

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/ 

3 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *