TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 14, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the support at 0.6965 and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965, 0.6990, 0.7020 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

An Australian wage price index figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish and has been finding resistance around 0.8675 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8645 and 0.8620. The EURGBP may continue to find resistance around 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has found resistance around 1.1260. The EURUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1220 and 1.1215. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price moved below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has since been finding support around 1.2940 (as also suggested). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980 and 1.3035. A bearish move could find support around 1.2905 and 1.2865.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The NZDUSD is ranging between 0.6565 and 0.6610. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.3485 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within a large consolidation area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3375, 1.3385, 1.3415, 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0105 and 1.0130. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0050.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has continued to be bearish and has formed a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 110.05 and 110.30. A bearish move could find support around 109.55 and 109.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish and has swung above the recent consolidation area. Price is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that GOLD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1290, 1288.50, 1288 and 1286. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1301.50.

 

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