TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 13, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of momentum – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965, 0.6990, 0.7015, 0.7025, 0.7040 and 0.7070. If the AUDUSD closes below 0.6965, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8620 and 0.8570. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8645, 0.8650 and 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish but has been finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.1245 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1215 and 1.1175. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The GBPUSD is ranging between 1.2980 and 1.3035. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.2940, 1.2905 and 1.2865. A break to the upside may be rejected around the horizontal levels at 1.3090, 1.3125 and 1.3165.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around 0.6615 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6645, 0.6660 and 0.6680.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3375, 1.3385, 1.3415, 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. The USDCHF is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0130, 1.0155, 1.0160 and 1.0170. Price could continue to find support around 1.0105.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been finding resistance around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).The USDJPY has been down-trending but is currently ranging between 109.55 and 110.05. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 110.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has reversed around the horizontal level at 1287 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1278, 1279, 1280, 1286, 1288, 1288.50 and 1290.

 

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