TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 10, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed off the horizontal support at 0.6965. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6965, 0.6990, 0.7025, 0.7040 and 0.7070. If the AUDUSD closes below 0.6965, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is currently up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8620 and 0.8570. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8650 and 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the diagonal support area and the horizontal channel support. The EURUSD has been bullish and is above the recent consolidation area, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1215, 1.1175 and 1.1150. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been bearish though and are widening, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt a bearish move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could find support around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.2960, 1.2940 and 1.2905.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD continued to find support around 0.6570 and has since moved off the support area. Price has been down-trending but has recent swung above the moving averages and trend resistance area, signalling that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6570, 0.6585, 0.6615, 0.6645, 0.6660 and 0.6680.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has reversed off the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3340, 1.3375, 1.3415, 1.3485, 1.3495 and 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment data figures will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the range support area at 1.0130. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between 1.0130 and 1.0225. The moving averages confirm the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to downtrend and be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.30 and 110.90. Price could find support around 109.55.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around 1286. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1277.50, 1279, 1280, 1286, 1288 and 1290.

 

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