TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 09, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7025. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965, 0.6990, 0.7025, 0.7040 and 0.7070. If price close below the horizontal support at 0.6965, the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8620 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is now retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8570 and 0.8540. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8620, 0.8635, 0.8650 and 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has found resistance around 1.1215. Price continues to be indecisive and is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1175-1.1215. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.1225, 1.1245 and 1.1260. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.1150 and 1.1225. Trading opportunities may also exist around the identified diagonal support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has been finding support around 1.1290 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2905, 1.2940, 1.2960, 1.2975, 1.2990, 1.3010, 1.3090 and 1.3125. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the GBPUSD may move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6610 and 0.6645. Price could continue to find support around 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to move within the 1.3415-1.3485 horizontal channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, long opportunities may exist around the diagonal support areas and around the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC also. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to range between 1.0130 and 1.0225. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the 23.6% Fib level. Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.30 and 110.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Fed speech will be given around the same time.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price broke to the upside of the recent range but has since been bearish. GOLD continues to look indecisive and lack trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1267.50, 1269, 1278, 1279, 1286, 1288 and 1290.

 

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