TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 06, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6990, 0.7025, 0.7035 and 0.7070.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A Australian retail sales figure will be announced at 0130 UTC. This is followed by a rate statement from the RBA at 0430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.8590. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.8495.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1120, 1.1150, 1.1225, 1.1245 and 1.1260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the trend support area and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3090, 1.3010 and 1.2990. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3165.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6580, 0.6600, 0.6640, 0.6660, 0.6670, 0.6680, 0.6690 and 0.6700.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

An inflation expectations figure will be released at 0300 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous trend resistance area (as support). The USDCAD has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows – price is starting to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the bullish momentum. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3475, 1.3440, 1.3420 and 1.3395. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The USDCHF is ranging between 1.0130 and 1.0225. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening and the USDJPY is below the recent consolidation area, all signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 111.10, 111.25, 111.45, 111.55 and 111.65. A bearish move could find support around 110.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has become indecisive again. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GOLD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1267.50-1288. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

 

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