TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 02, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs, suggesting that the AUDUSD may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7035 and 0.7065. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.6995.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A Australian building approvals figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8520 and 0.8635. The EURGBP could find support around the recent lows at 0.8575.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The BOE will release a inflation report and a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1130 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the trend support area. The EURUSD has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. An attempt to move higher may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1225, 1.1245, 1.1260 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3010, 1.2975, 1.2960 and 1.2940. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3090 and 1.3120.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The BOE will release a inflation report and a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1130 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.6655. Price is down-trending. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6640, 0.6655, 0.6670 and 0.6680. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.6580.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been finding resistance around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3440 and 1.3470. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.3395, 1.3375 and 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal support at 1.0130 and is now finding resistance around the trend resistance area. The USDCHF has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.0130-1.0225. The moving averages confirm the current lack of trend momentum – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY has moved above the moving averages and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 111.10, 111.25, 111.45, 111.55, 111.70, 111.85 and 112.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that GOLD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1272, 1278, 1279.50 and 1286.

 

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