TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 30, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around the trend resistance area. Price has since moved above the trend resistance though and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have crossed and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance and around the horizontal levels at 0.6995, 0.7065 and 0.7115.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Te EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8650 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8600, 0.8620, 0.8635, 0.8450 and 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the 50.0% Fib level and the trend resistance area. The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price has retraced above the moving averages and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all signalling that selling momentum is weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support and resistance areas, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1120, 1.1225 and 1.1240.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price was finding resistance around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has since been bullish and has moved above the trend resistance area, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2940, 1.2905 and 1.2865. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.2975, 1.3010 and 1.3050.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6580, 0.6655, 0.6670, 0.6680, 0.6690, 0.6700 and 0.6725.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. New Zealand employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed off the trend support area. Price has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.3340, 1.3385, 1.3395, 1.3440, 1.3470 and 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 1.0170 and 1.0225. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0155 and 1.0130.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish. The USDJPY has swung lower, forming a series of lower swing highs and lows – price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 111.45, 111.55, 111.70, 111.85 and 111.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1279.50, 1278 and 1272. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1288 and around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

 

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