TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 29, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the longer-term moving average and is now finding resistance around the trend resistance area. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7110 and 0.7115. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.6995.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8590, 0.8600, 0.8620, 0.8635, 0.8650 and 0.8675. Recent price action has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the EURGBP may continue to move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0810 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found support around the horizontal level at 1.1120. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the diagonal support area and around the recent swing low at 1.1120.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other ***USD pairs, the GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.2975 and 1.3010. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 1.2865.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0810 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The recent downtrend now seems over. The NZDUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages have crossed and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6580, 0.6670, 0.6690, 0.6700, 0.6725 and 0.6745.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A New Zealand business confidence figure will be announced at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3395 and 1.3385. The bullish moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3515.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed again at the range resistance area. Price continues to range between 1.0170 and 1.0225. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.0155 and 1.0130.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY found resistance around the moving averages and previous diagonal support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 111.45, 111.50, 111.70, 111.85, 112.00, 112.10 and 112.35. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1282.50 and 1279.50. A bullish move could find resistance around 1288.00.

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