Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 29.04-03.05.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro tested the support level 1.1121, but failed to break it down and corrected upwards. However, the price has already resumed its decline and now is trading near this mark. Given this fact, as well as the recent sharp decline on the large volume, we can consider a scenario of a breakdown of this level, which will be an excellent bearish signal.

The breakout movement must be confident, sharp and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate and strong signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound also corrected upwards after the formation of a new volume support level 1.2871. Nevertheless, the pair is still close to this mark, and also the presence of a strong local downtrend , we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will allow to open short positions.

The breakout movement must be confident and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

USD/JPY

The Yen corrected downward after the formation of a new resistance level of 112.24, in which the large volume is concentrated. Therefore, we may assume that major players have opened their positions in this mark. On the other hand, the price is still close to this mark, thus, as long as the sellers do not have enough strength to turn it down. Hence, we can consider a scenario of the breakout of this mark, which will allow us to open long positions. The growth of the pair should be sharp and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

USD/CAD

The situation is the same with the Canadian dollar, as the price corrected downwards after the test of the resistance level 1.3515. The price was falling on the small volume and given that the pair is still trading near resistance, we can consider a scenario of its breakout that will consent opening purchases. The movement should be rapid and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continued correcting upwards and tested the resistance level 0.7048. The pair failed to break it down and is trading just below it at the moment. Given the sharp drop of the price last week, we still should give preference to short positions. Sales can be opened after the resumption of a sharp drop on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is more than 80 points.

XAU/USD

Gold shown a sharp growth on the large volume, but is still trading within the local range between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support level 1267.30 and the resistance level 1295.10.

Thus, we can open new positions only after the exit of the price from the local range. The breakout movement must be confident and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market.

While the pair is inside the consolidation, it is better to stay out of the market.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms all our trading scenarios, which is an excellent additional signal (trading against the “crowd”). As with gold, the situation is 50/50, so we can open only after the exit of the price from the range.

Potentially good deals: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

While out of the market: XAU/USD