TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 25, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7090 and 0.7110. Price could continue to find support around 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has moved below the range support area. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8590, 0.8600, 0.8620, 0.8635, 0.8645 and 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1205 and 1.1225. The EURUSD could find support around the recent lows at 1.1140.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has reversed off the shorter-term moving averages and has continued to be bearish and downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.2975 and 1.3010.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6670. A bearish move could find support around 0.6580.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3395 and 1.3385. The USDCAD may continue to find resistance around 1.3495.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has continued to be bullish. Price has been up-trending but is currently ranging between 1.0170 and 1.0220. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could break to the upside. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0155 and 1.0130.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation and has formed a higher swing high, all suggesting that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel support, around the diagonal support area and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 111.85, 111.70 and 111.50. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 112.00, 112.10 and 112.35. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. GOLD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1267.50, 1272, 1279.50, 1282.50 and 1293.

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