TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 18, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the moving averages. The AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7140, 0.7130, 0.7115 and 0.7110. Price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7185 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The EURGBP is up-trending again. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8645, 0.8635, 0.8620, 0.8600 and 0.8590. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

European flash PMI figures will be released at 0715 and 0730 UTC today. A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the channel support area. Price continues to move within a large bullish channel but be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1280 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1320. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the bullish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

European flash PMI figures will be released at 0715 and 0730 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.3035 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2990, 1.3005, 1.3035, 1.3050, 1.3115, 1.3120 and 1.3140.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6740. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6740, 0.6765, 0.6780 and 0.6800.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The USDCAD has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.3290-1.3395. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3440. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian retail sales figure will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.0045. The USDCHF could continue to find resistance around 1.0110.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been moving off the range support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and range between 111.85 and 112.10. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 111.75, 111.50, 111.30 and 111.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1274, 1279, 1283, 1286, 1287, 1293 and 1295.

 

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