TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 17, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7185, 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7140 and 0.7130.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the previous trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend but is below the trend support area, signalling that the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8645, 0.8635, 0.8620, 0.8600 and 0.8590.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1300 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the channel support area. The EURUSD has been up-trending within a bullish channel. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1290 and 1.1280. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high and horizontal resistance at 1.1320 and the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2990, 1.3005, 1.3035, 1.3050, 1.3115, 1.3120 and 1.3140.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1300 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bearish. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6740, 0.6765, 0.6775, 0.6780, 0.6800 and 0.6835.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

A New Zealand CPI figure will be released at 2245 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support and resistance areas and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3290, 1.3300, 1.3310, 1.3365, 1.3375, 1.3390 and 1.3295.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

Canadian CPI and trade balance figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0045, 1.0005 and 0.9995.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been up-trending but is now moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 111.85 and 112.10. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.75, 111.50, 111.30, 111.20 and 110.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that GOLD may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1282.75, 1285.80, 1287.20, 1293.10, 1295.25 and 1299.20. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 1274.00.

 

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