TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 12, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending but has recently been bearish. The recent retrace move was strong and has swung below the moving averages and trend support area, suggesting that the recent uptrend could becoming to an end. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7145, 0.7130, 0.7115, 0.7110, 0.7100 and 0.7090.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around 0.8625. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8590-0.8645. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP closes out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1280, 1.1250, 1.1240 and 1.1210. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.1325.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the end of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3035 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3115. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas. A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.3005 and 1.2990. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3150, 1.3190 and 1.3265.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the previous trend resistance area (as support). Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price is ranging between 0.6720 and 0.6770. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825 and 0.6835.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poor, suggesting a further cut to rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3390 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.32.90, 1.3300, 1.3310, 1.3350, 1.3365, 1.3375, 1.3390 and 1.3440.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF continues to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0025, 1.0005, 1.0000 and 0.9980. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 1.0045.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has swung above a number of resistance levels and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, all suggesting that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 111.75, 111.50, 111.30, 111.20, 111.05 and 110.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The recent uptrend is now over. GOLD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1282.75, 1285.80, 1287.20, 1293.10, 1295.25, 1299.20, 1303.15 and 1309.85.

 

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