TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 02, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The AUDUSD is consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle and is moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the triangle (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7040, 0.7060, 0.7065, 0.7100, 0.7120, 0.7130, 0.7145 and 0.7165. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

Australia will release their annual budget at 0830 UTC. A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC. An Australian retail sales figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8535. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8510, 0.8530, 0.8570, 0.8590, 0.8640 and 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has reversed around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since swung lower and continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1245 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3145. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3105, 1.3150 and 1.3175. A bearish move may find support around 1.3040 and 1.2990 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6790, 0.6810, 0.6825, 0.6830, 0.6835 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. The USDCAD is currently down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3340, 1.3360 and 1.3375. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3290, 1.3270 and 1.3260.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung above the recent consolidation (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that the USDCHF could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9970, 0.9930 and 0.9915.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bullish and move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 111.20, 110.85, 110.65, 110.35 and 110.05. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.65 and 111.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and is forming a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1294.70, 1298.60 and 1300.05.

 

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