Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 01-05.04.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro continued its decline, but the movement was on the average volume, which was evenly distributed throughout the entire chart, so we cannot single out any new level or zone. Nevertheless, given the strong decline, we still should give preference to short positions.

Sales can be opened after the continuation of the fall, but the movement should be on the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the beginning of this movement. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound showed a significant and sharp decline and is now trading near the support/lower limit of the local range 1.2985 – 1.2998. The movement was on the large volume, so we can consider the scenario of its breakdown, which will allow opening short positions.

The fall should be rapid and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate and strong signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The first target is the level 1.2773.

USD/JPY

The Yen continues trading within the local range between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support level 109.82 and the resistance level 112.00. Thus, we can open new positions only after a confident and sharp exit of the price from the range. The breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market.

While the price is within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar fell sharply on Friday and now the price is in the middle of the local range between the support 1.3248 and resistance 1.3463. Thus, the best solution with this pair will be to wait for a confident and rapid exit of the price from the consolidation. Moreover, the breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakdown and will be a more reliable signal to enter the market.

While the price is within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues trading within the local range between 2 strong volume levels. The first level is the support 0.7008, the second one is resistance 0.7165. Considering this factor, we can open new positions only after a confident exit of the price from the local consolidation. The movement should be sharp and on the large volume, which will help us to avoid a false breakout.

While the price is within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

Gold sharply corrected upward, but after the formation of a new resistance level 1299.50, the price resumed its sharp drop. The large volume is concentrated within this mark, so before its breakout, it is better to give preference to short positions.

Sales should be opened after a small price correction upwards in order to get a better entry point to the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the new resistance level. A potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms our scenarios of opening short positions with the Euro and Pound, which is an excellent additional signal (trading against the “crowd”). The situation with gold is 50/50, so we should be extremely careful. As with the rest of currency pairs, we can open new positions only after a confident exit of prices from local consolidations.

Potentially good deals: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, XAU/USD

While out of the market: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

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