TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 01, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD was finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and the horizontal level at 0.7100. Price has since been bullish. The AUDUSD continues to look indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7045, 0.7060, 0.7065, 0.7100, 0.7120, 0.7145 and 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC. Australian building approvals will be announced at 0030 UTC. This is followed by a RBA rate statement at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8640 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8505, 0.8535, 0.8670, 0.8590, 0.8640 and 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, selling momentum is weakening – price has been bullish. The EURUSD has swung above the trend resistance area, signalling that the recent downtrend may be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1210, 1.1280 and 1.1325.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3105, 1.3145 and 1.3175. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3040 and 1.2990.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are starting to move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6790, 0.6810, 0.6825, 0.6830, 0.6870 and 0.6895.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3360, 1.3375 and 1.3440. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3340, 1.3290, 1.3270 and 1.3260.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1955 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been moving off the diagonal support area and the horizontal resistance at 0.9970 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to consolidate. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9970, 0.9930, 0.9915 and 0.9895. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.90, 110.70 and 110.35. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 111.20, 111.65 and 111.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal support at 1298.55 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1290.50, 1294.75, 1298.60, 1300.00 and 1305.80. GOLD may find support around 1287.20.

 

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