TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 29, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7070. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7045, 0.7060, 0.7065, 0.7095, 0.7100, 0.7120, 0.7145 and 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8510, 0.8535, 0.8580, 0.8590, 0.8640 and 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the trend resistance area and has moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1280, 1.1325 and 1.1335. Price is attempting a move above the trend resistance area, suggesting that selling pressure is starting to weaken.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.3045 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the GBPUSD may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3145, 1.3175, 1.3245 and 1.3265. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3040 and 1.2965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6810, 0.6825, 0.6830 and 0.6870. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6790 and 0.6775.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around 1.3440 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.3375 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3440. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3360 and 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been reversing off the diagonal support area and the horizontal resistance at 0.9965. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9895, 0.9915, 0.9930 and 0.9970. If the USDCHF closes above 0.9970, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.35 and 110.05. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 110.70, 110.90, 111.20 and 111.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1290.45, 1294.70, 1298.55, 1300.05 and 1305.80.