TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 28, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7070. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7040, 0.7060, 0.7070, 0.7095, 0.7120, 0.7145 and 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP was bearish and then reversed around 0.8490 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8580, 0.8590 and 0.8640. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8510 and 0.8490.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 1.1280 and has since been bearish. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1280, 1.1325, 1.1335 and 1.1355. A strong bearish move may find support around 1.1180.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around 1.3145 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3045, 1.3145, 1.3175, 1.3245, 1.3265, 1.3295 and 1.3335.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6830 and 0.6870. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6810 and 0.6790.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Governor of the RBNZ will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has found resistance at 1.3440. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3260, 1.3290, 1.3340, 1.3360, 1.3375, 1.3440 and 1.3460.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been rejected at the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between 0.9915 and 0.9965. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a rising diagonal support and the moving averages have become bullish, signalling that the USDCHF may attempt a move above the range resistance. Buying opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.75, 110.35, 110.70, 110.90 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US final GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the trend support area. Price has been up-trending but the current retrace move has been strong and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that the uptrend may now be over. A bearish move could find support around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1305.85, 1300.05, 1298.55, 1294.70 and 1290.50. A bullish move could find resistance around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1319.05 and 1322.55.