TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 27, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7045, 0.7060, 0.7070, 0.7095, 0.7120, 0.7145 and 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. The EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the bearish momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8580, 0.8590 and 0.8640. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8535, 0.8510 and 0.8490.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD reversed around 1.1320 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1280, 1.1325, 1.1335 and 1.1360. A strong bearish move could find support around 1.1180.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3245. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.3045, 1.3145, 1.3175, 1.3245, 1.3295 and 1.3335.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has moved below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all suggesting that price could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6870 and 0.6895. A strong bearish move could find support around 0.6745.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A New Zealand business confidence figure will be announced at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3290, 1.3340, 1.3360, 1.3375, 1.3440 and 1.3460.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish and is now looking indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is ranging between 0.9915 and 0.9965. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the recent lows at 0.9895.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has swung above both moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the recent downtrend is over. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 109.75, 110.35, 110.90, 111.05 and 111.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1310.90, 1305.80 and 1300.05. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1319.05 and 1322.55.

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