Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 25-29.03.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro showed a significant and sharp drop on the large volume on Friday, which is an excellent bearish signal. However, a further decline was stopped by the formation of the new volume support level 1.1278. Thus, we can open sales only after a confident breakdown of this mark.

The breakout movement must be swift and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The first target is the level 1.1180.

GBP/USD

Despite the sharp rise of the price at the end of last week, the Pound continues trading within the local range between the support 1.2985 – 1.2998 and the resistance 1.3335. It is also worth noting that the large volume accumulation is concentrated in this consolidation.

Taking into account all these factors, we can open new positions only after a confident and rapid exit of the price from the range. Moreover, the movement should be on a large volume, which will be a stronger and more accurate signal to enter the market.

While the price is inside the consolidation, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/JPY

The Yen showed a rapid and significant decline and broke through the previous support level, which is a strong bearish signal. Moreover, the decline was on the large volume, which only enhances its value. Thus, we should give preference to short positions. Nevertheless, we can enter the market only after a confident breakdown of a new support level 109.82 on the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar also showed a significant rise on the increased volume and is now trading near the local maximum/resistance level 1.3463. Thus, we can consider the scenario of the breakout of this mark, which will allow to open long positions with this currency pair. The breakout movement must be confident and on the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is in the middle of the local range between 2 strong levels. They are the support 0.7008 and the resistance 0.7165. Thus, we can consider new trading scenarios only after a rapid breakout of one of these levels and an abrupt exit of the price from the consolidation. Moreover, the movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal to enter the market.

While the price is trading within the range, it is better to stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

Gold resumed its steady growth and is now trading near the local maximum/resistance level 1318.00. Thus, we can consider a scenario of its breakout, which will consent to open long positions with gold.

The breakout movement must be abrupt and confident, as well as on the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout and will be a more reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms our trading scenarios with the Euro, Yen, Canadian dollar and gold (trade against the “crowd”), which is an excellent additional signal. As with the Pound and the Australian dollar, we should wait for a confident exit of prices from consolidations and only after that we can use this tool for analysis.

The best deals: EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Potentially good deals: USD/CAD, XAU/USD

While out of the market: GBP/USD, AUD/USD

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