TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 25, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend support area. The AUDUSD has been up-trending but price is below the moving averages and the moving averages are crossing bearish, all signalling that the recent uptrend could becoming to an end. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7005, 0.7020, 0.7045, 0.7060, 0.7090, 0.7095, 0.7120 and 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price was up-trending but has recently been bearish. The EURGBP has swung below the moving averages and trend support area, suggesting that the uptrend is over. Price action has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the EURGBP may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8580 and 0.8640. A bearish move may find support around 0.8565, 0.8535, 0.8510 and 0.8490.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bearish. Price has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the EURUSD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.1335 and 1.3555. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1290 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around 1.3220. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3220, 1.3250, 1.3295 and 1.3335. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3145, 1.3045 and 1.2965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6870 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is up-trending but the moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6870, 0.6895 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has moved higher. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the identified trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3385, 1.3360 and 1.3340. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3460.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed around the longer-term moving average and trend resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9985. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting that a bearish move may fail. The USDCHF may reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the identified diagonal support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the previous support at 110.90 and the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.35, 110.90 and 111.05. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 109.75.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1310.90, 1305.85 and 1300.00. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1319.00.

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