TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – March 21, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7120, 0.7095, 0.7090 and 0.7060. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7165.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8640, 0.8610, 0.8580 and 0.8565. The EURGBP may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 0.8670.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish again, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1355, 1.1335, 1.1320 and 1.1300. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1445.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside pressure may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3185, 1.3220, 1.3245 and 1.3295. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3145, 1.3110, 1.3055 and 1.2965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The NZDUSD has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6870 and 0.6860.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal support at 1.3260. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.3260 and 1.3360. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around 1.3200. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 1.3420, 1.3445 and 1.3460.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed around the trend resistance area and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9930 and 0.9985. The USDCHF may find support around the recent swing low at 0.9895.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The SNB will release a monetary policy assessment at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 0900 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bearish. Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that the USDJPY could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 110.85, 111.00 and 111.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. GOLD is up-trending again. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1310.90.

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