TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price has swung below the trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent uptrend is over. The moving averages are now moving sideways and tightening, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7005, 0.7020, 0.7045, 0.7060, 0.7090, 0.7095 and 0.7120.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 0.8535 and 0.8565. Price continues to be indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish though and has formed a short series of higher swing lows, signalling that buying momentum is building. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8565, 0.8550, 0.8535, 0.8510 and 0.8500. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8580, 0.8610, 0.8640 and 0.8670.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is currently finding resistance around 1.1355 (as also suggested). Price recently moved below the trend support area and the moving averages are starting to move sideways, all suggesting that upside momentum is weakening. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1335, 1.1320, 1.1300, 1.1290 and 1.1250. A bullish move could find resistance around the previous trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1355, 1.1370, 1.1400 and 1.1415.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the range resistance area. The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and range between 1.3215 and 1.3295. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3335. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3185, 1.3110, 1.3055 and 1.2965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.6870 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.6785, 0.6795, 0.6810, 0.6820, 0.6830, 0.6835, 0.6840, 0.6855, 0.6860 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. A GDP figure for New Zealand will be released at 2145 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3290, 1.3310, 1.3340, 1.3360, 1.3420, 1.3445 and 1.3460.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has found support around the horizontal level at 0.9985. The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0015, 1.0030, 1.0040, 1.0055 and 1.0070. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9985, 0.9965 and 0.9930.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.75, 110.90, 111.05, 111.20, 111.40, 111.70, 111.85 and 112.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

The FOMC will release a statement, economic projections and the official bank rate at 1800 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1310.90. Price has since moved below the trend support area and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1283.05, 1290.45, 1294.70, 1298.50, 1300.00 and 1310.90.

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