TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 11, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The AUDUSD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and is currently forming an inverted head and shoulder reversal pattern, all suggesting that the recent downtrend could now be over. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7020 and 0.7005. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7050, 0.7065, 0.7080, 0.7105 and 0.7115. The AUDUSD could start ranging between 0.7005 and 0.7050.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The EURGBP has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8635, 0.8610, 0.8575, 0.8565, 0.8550 and 0.8535. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8670 and 0.8725.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1280 and 1.1290. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.1180.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish and has been finding support around 1.2980. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3020, 1.3085, 1.3110 and 1.3190. The GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The NZDUSD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all suggesting that the recent downside direction could now be over. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6790, 0.6785, 0.6770 and 0.6760. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.6815, 0.6820 and 0.6835.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3420, 1.3445 and 1.3460. Price action is forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern, signalling that the USDCAD may attempt a bearish move.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding support around the trend support area. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0075, 1.0060, 1.0040, 1.0025 and 1.0020. The USDCHF could find resistance around 1.0120.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has reversed off the horizontal level at 110.90 (as identified in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short-series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs, all signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 111.65 and 112.00. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.20, 111.05 and 110.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level. GOLD is down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that an attempt to swing lower could fail. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1290.50 and 1283.00.

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