Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 11-15.03.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro, as predicted, corrected upwards on Friday. The growth of the pair was on the increased volume, but is still trading below the volume resistance level 1.1256 – 1.1267. Thus, we still should give preference to short positions.

Sales can be opened after a stoppage of the price correction and the resumption of a sharp drop of the pair. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound showed a significant and rapid decline on the very large volume on Friday. At the moment, the pair is testing the support level 1.2985 – 1.2998. Thus, we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will be an excellent bearish signal.

The breakout movement should be abrupt and on the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakdown and will be a more reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

USD/JPY

The situation with the Yen has not changed: the price is trading in the middle of the local range between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support 110.26 and the resistance 112.00. Given this factor, we can open new deals only after a sharp and confident exit of the price from the consolidation. The breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate and strong signal to enter the market.

While the price is trading within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar has adjusted downward after the formation of the resistance level of 1.3463. Nevertheless, considering the presence of a strong uptrend and the support level 1.3375, in which the large volume is concentrated, we still should give preference to long positions. Purchases can be opened after the resumption of the growth and a confident breakout of the new level of resistance on the large volume. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

If the price continues correcting downwards, it is better to stay out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar also corrected on Friday. The movement was on the increased volume, however, given the strong local downtrend, we still should give preference to sales. Short positions can be opened after the resumption of a sharp drop on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the beginning of this movement. The potential of the deal is more than 80 points.

If the price continues its upward correction, it is better to stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

Gold showed significant and sharp growth on the large volume. Now the price is trading near the resistance level/upper limit of the local range 1202.70 – 1204.20. Given these factors, we can consider a scenario of the breakout of this mark, which will be an excellent signal for opening long positions.

The breakout movement must be swift and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

If the price continues trading within the local range, it is better to stay out of the market.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms our trading scenarios with the Euro, Pound, Canadian and Australian dollars (trading against the “crowd”), which is an excellent additional signal. As with gold, the situation with this instrument is 50/50, so it is worth being more careful. The situation is similar with the Yen, so we should wait for the exit of the price from the consolidation.

The best deals: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Potentially good deals: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: USD/JPY

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