TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 07, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance areas and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7065, 0.7070 and 0.7080. Price could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7020.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8610 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance), around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8535, 0.8560, 0.8610, 0.8635 and 0.8670.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The ECB will announced the official bank rate and release a monetary policy statement at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around 1.1320 and the shorter-term moving average. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1320, 1.1340, 1.1355 and 1.1370. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1290, 1.1280 and 1.1250.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The ECB will announced the official bank rate and release a monetary policy statement at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD is currently finding resistance around 1.3185 and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has recently swung above the diagonal resistance area and the bearish moving averages are moving sideways, all signalling that the downside direction could now be over. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3020, 1.3085, 1.3110, 1.3190, 1.3240, 1.3275 and 1.3335.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6790, 0.6800, 0.6815, 0.6820 and 0.6835. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6770 and 0.6760.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. The USDCAD could continue to find resistance around 1.3445.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been finding resistance around 1.0060 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0040, 1.0025, 1.0020, 1.0015 and 1.0005. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1.0060, 1.0080 and 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has closed below the horizontal channel and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price could become bearish. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 112.00. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 111.65 and around the bearish channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been moving sideways and has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1283.00-1290.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish, signalling that price may break to the downside. A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 1304.40.

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