TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 06, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to move lower. Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the AUDUSD may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7070, 0.7080, 0.7090 and 0.7105.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

An Australian retail sales figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the previous trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive but has been forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling upside momentum. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area, around the previous trend resistance (as support) and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8565 and 0.8535. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8610, 0.8635 and 0.8670.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has been finding support around the channel support area. The EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1320, 1.1340, 1.1355 and 1.1370. The EURUSD may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1280 and 1.1250.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average and the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3185, 1.3240, 1.3275 and 1.3335. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3110, 1.3085, 1.3020 and 1.2780.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the moving averages and has moved lower. Price is moving below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the NZDUSD may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6770, 0.6780, 0.6790, 0.6800, 0.6815, 0.6825 and 0.6835. Price may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3325, 1.3310 and 1.3270.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC rate statement at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The USDCHF has moved above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0045, 1.0025, 1.0020, 1.0015 and 1.0005. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0060, 1.0080 and 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has become indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 111.65-112.00. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDJPY closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 111.20, 111.05 and 110.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal support at 1304.35 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows and horizontal support at 1283.00.

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