TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 05, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price action has now formed a bearish channel and the moving averages continue to be bearish, all signalling that the AUDUSD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7105 and 0.7115. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7070 and 0.7060.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2210 UTC today. An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is currently finding resistance around 0.8610 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has been down-trending but has recently moved above the trend resistance area, signalling that the downtrend may be over. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8535, 0.8560, 0.8610, 0.8670 and 0.8710.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1535 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.1325. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1355 and 1.1370. The EURUSD could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1320 and 1.1280.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has reversed around the moving averages and diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD recently moved below the trend support area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that an attempt to swing higher may fail. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend support (as resistance), around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3020, 1.3085, 1.3185, 1.3240, 1.3275 and 1.3335.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the bearish direction could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6815, 0.6820, 0.6835 and 0.6850. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6790 and 0.6770.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3325, 1.3310, 1.3270 and 1.3240.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 0.9985 and 1.0020 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9930, 0.9965, 0.9970, 0.9980, 1.0005, 1.0015, 1.0020, 1.0025, 1.0045 and 1.0060.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 111.65, 111.20 and 111.05. Price may find resistance around the recent highs and psychological level at 112.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1304.40. Price could continue to find support around 1285.30.