Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 04-08.03.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro is still located within the local consolidation between 2 strong volume levels. The first one is the support 1.1345, the second one is the resistance 1.1416. Hence, our previous scenario remains relevant: we can open new positions only after the breakout of one of these levels and the sharp exit of the price from the range.

Furthermore, the breakout movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is trading inside this range, we’d better stay out of the market.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its downward correction, but is still located near the level of resistance 1.3304. Therefore, our previous scenario is still actual: we can consider a scenario of its breakout, which will be a great bullish signal.

The surge must be confident and supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

If the price continues falling down, we’d better stay out of the market.

USD/JPY

The Yen is testing the new level of resistance 112.00. Given the recent sharp growth supported by the large volume, we can and should consider a scenario of its breakout, which will allow us to open long positions. The rise of the pair must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar has shown significant growth on the very large volume and is trading near the resistance/upper limit of the local range 1.3323 at the moment. Thus, we can consider the scenario of the breakdown of this mark, which will allow us to open long positions. The movement should be on the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continued to fall and is now trading near the support/lower limit of the local range 0.7058. Thus, we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will be an excellent bearish signal. The decline should be sharp and on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

XAU/USD

Gold demonstrated a huge drop supported by the large volume and broke down the previous support level. Besides it, the new level of resistance 1302.70 – 1304.20 was created, which contains the large volume. Given all these factors, we should consider exceptionally short positions.

We can enter the market after a smooth and slight upward correction of the price, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed a little bit above the new level of resistance. A potential of the deal is more than 150 pips.

The sentiment: this technical indicator fully confirms all our trading scenarios, which is an excellent additional signal (trade against the “crowd”). The only exception is gold, for which the situation is 50/50, so we should be more careful. As with the Euro, we can open new positions only after a confident exit of the price from the consolidation.

Potentially good deals: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD

While out of the market: EUR/USD

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