TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 01, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7060, 0.7075, 0.7105, 0.7130, 0.7140, 0.7160, 0.7180 and 0.7195.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level. The EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal level at 0.8595 and around the trend resistance area. Price may find support around 0.8535.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since moved below the moving averages and the trend support area, signalling that the recent uptrend could now be over. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.1370, 1.1395 and 1.1415. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.1325.
The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding support around the 23.6% Fib level. Price has since been bearish though and continues to retrace. The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal level at 1.3090. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.3335.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been rejected around the horizontal level at 0.6795 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6885 and 0.6900.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 1.3200. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle and range between 1.1315 and 1.3240. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if price closes out of either pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3125, 1.3150, 1.3200, 1.3230 and 1.3270.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.
A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF is currently finding resistance around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9985, 1.0015, 1.0020 and 1.0025. A bearish move could find support around 0.9965 and 0.9930.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has moved above the recent consolidation pattern and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 111.20, 111.05 and 110.90.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1314.40, 1315.15, 1318.10, 1322.50 and 1323.80, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
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