TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 28, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7105, 0.7140, 0.7160, 0.7180 and 0.7195.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP found support around 0.8535. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8575 and 0.8595. The EURGBP could continue to find support around 0.8535.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been finding support around the previous consolidation resistance area and the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1370 and 1.1325. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.1395.
The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3085. The GBPUSD could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3335.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6770, 0.6795, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6885, 0.6890 and 0.6900.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.3115. Price has now become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle and also a range at 1.3115-1.3240. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if the USDCAD closes out of either pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3125, 1.3150, 1.3230 and 1.3270.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has swung below the recent horizontal channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9980, 1.0015, 1.0020, 1.0025 and 1.0045. The USDCHF may find support around 0.9965.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 110.25, 110.35, 110.55, 110.90, 111.05 and 111.20.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.
A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1322.50, 1323.80, 1329.55 and 1332.70. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1318.10, 1315.15 and 1314.40.
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