TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 27, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.7195. The AUDUSD has recently been bullish and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could attempt a move above the current consolidation area. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7160, 0.7140 and 0.7130. The AUDUSD could continue to find resistance around 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today. A Australian private capital expenditure figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance areas and around the previous horizontal support at 0.8670. Price may be rejected or reverse around 0.8580.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the EURUSD could start up-trending again. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1370 and 1.1325. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 1.1395.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bullish and continues to uptrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous swing high at 1.3085. The GBPUSD may find resistance around 1.3270.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 0.6900. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6880, 0.6890 and 0.6900. If price closes above 0.6900, the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around 1.3230 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD has re-entered the bearish channel. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways though, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.3115, 1.3150, 1.3195, 1.3230 and 1.3240.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.9980 and 1.0020. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around 1.0025, 1.0045 and 1.0060.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY found support around the diagonal support area. Price has since been bearish though and has moved below a number of key support levels. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous diagonal support (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.00, 110.25, 110.55, 110.90, 111.05 and 111.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GOLD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1322.50 and the recent swing high at 1332.65. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around 1315.15 and 1314.40. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 1346.30.