TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 26, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7055, 0.7075, 0.7105, 0.7135, 0.7160, 0.7180 and 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP closed below 0.8670 and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the trend resistance areas, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8670, 0.8710 and 0.8725.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

UK inflation report hearings will be released at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to find support around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1325-1.1370. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1280 and 1.1250.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the horizontal resistance at 1.3090 and has since been bullish. The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3090, 1.3020 and 1.2975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

UK inflation report hearings will be released at 1000 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been rejected at 0.6900 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6885, 0.6890 and 0.6900.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200, 1.3230 and 1.3240. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3150 and 1.3115.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the trend resistance area. The USDCHF has been down-trending but is now ranging between 0.9980 and 1.0020. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0025, 1.0045, 1.0060.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price broke to the upside of the tighter range and then reversed around the resistance area of the larger range (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY continues to look choppy and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.25, 110.55, 110.90, 111.05 and 111.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1445 UTC today. A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1314.40, 1315.15, 1322.50, 1332.70 and 1346.30.