TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 25, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7060, 0.7080, 0.7105, 0.7130, 0.7160 and 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8670, 0.8710, 0.8725, 0.8735, 0.8740, 0.8750 and 0.8790. If the EURGBP closes below 0.8670, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been finding support around the longer-term moving average and the trend support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is moving sideways. The moving averages are slightly bullish though, suggesting that the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1340, 1.1330 and 1.1280. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.1370.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2975. Price continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2890, 1.2945, 1.2975, 1.3020 and 1.3090. If the GBPUSD closes above 1.3090, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.6770 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6795, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6885, 0.6890 and 0.6900. If price closes above 0.6900, the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150, 1.3195, 1.3225, 1.3240.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the trend resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0020, 1.0025, 1.0045 and 1.0060. The USDCHF could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.9990 and 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed 2 horizontal channels at 110.55-110.90 and 110.25-111.05. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both horizontal channels and if the USDJPY closes out of either channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 110.10, 110.00 and 109.55.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around the moving averages. GOLD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1314.40, 1315.15, 1322.70 and 1346.30.

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