TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 21, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7195. Price has since been bearish and has moved below the moving averages and the trend support area, signalling that the recent uptrend is over. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting market indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7055, 0.7085, 0.7105, 0.7135, 0.7160 and 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2230 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8710, 0.8735, 0.8740 and 0.8750. The EURGBP may find support around the horizontal support and recent lows at 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A French services PMI figure will be released at 0815 UTC today. This is followed by German services and manufacturing PMI figures at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the trend support area and the moving averages. The EURUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.1330, 1.1280 and 1.1250. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1435.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A French services PMI figure will be released at 0815 UTC today. This is followed by German services and manufacturing PMI figures at 0830 UTC. A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2945, 1.2890 and 1.2845. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3090.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6885 and 0.6900.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has continued to be bearish. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the USDCAD may attempt another move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3195, 1.3225 and 1.3270. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3150 and 1.3075.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1735 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price action has formed a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to downtrend. Price is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0025, 1.0045, 1.0060 and 1.0080. The USDCHF could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.0005, 0.9990 and 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 110.25 and 111.05. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around 110.10, 110.00 and 109.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1325.25. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 1346.30.