TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bullish channel support area. As also suggested, the AUDUSD has since been finding resistance around the channel resistance area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7160, 0.7130 and 0.7105. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7195, 0.7260 and 0.7270.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed below 0.8720 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8715, 0.8730, 0.8740 and 0.8750. The EURGBP could continue to find support around 0.8675.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish and has closed above the recent range. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous consolidation resistance areas at 1.1340 and 1.1330 and around the diagonal support levels. A strong bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.1435, 1.1475 and 1.1505.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has since swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2975, 1.2945 and 1.2890. The GBPUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3060 and 1.3150.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around 0.6880 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6890, 0.6900 and 0.6935.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3285. The USDCAD has been bearish and has swung below the recent consolidation area. Price is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3195, 1.3225, 1.3270 and 1.3310. A bearish move could find support around 1.3155 and 1.3075.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0025, 1.0045, 1.0060 and 1.0080. The USDCHF may stall or reverse around 1.0005 and 0.9990.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 110.25 and 111.05. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 110.10, 110.00 and 109.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

The FOMC will release meeting minutes at 1900 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1325.25.

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