TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 19, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7085 and 0.7060. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7130, 0.7160 and 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A Australian wage price index figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.8740. Price continues to look indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8720, 0.8730, 0.8740, 0.8790, 0.8815 and 0.8830. If the EURGBP closes below 0.8720, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1340 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1250-1.1340. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1410 and 1.1435.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2945. The GBPUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish though and price action is forming an inverted head and shoulder reversal pattern, all signalling that the uptrend could be over. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2890, 1.2845 and 1.2775. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2945, 1.2975 and 1.3055.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bearish. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6815, 0.6850, 0.6890, 0.6900 and 0.6935.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3155, 1.3195, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3310 and 1.3330.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. The USDCHF is below the recent consolidation and has swung below the recent trend support area, all suggesting that the recent uptrend is over. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal resistance resistance area, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0080 and 1.0095. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.0045, 1.0025 and 0.9990.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is moving sideways and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are also moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.60, 109.65, 110.00, 110.10, 110.25, 110.65 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1315.15 and 1314.40. Price may find resistance around 1325.25 and 1.2670.

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *