TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 15, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7055 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7135. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.7145, 0.7195 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish. Price has swung above recent highs and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the EURGBP may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8790 and 0.8740. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.8815 and 0.8830.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around 1.1255. The EURUSD is looking indecisive. Price is ranging between 1.1255 and 1.1340. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price could break to the downside.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed below 1.2845 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2845, 1.2890, 1.2945 and 1.29750. Price could find support around 1.2780.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around 0.6850. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6850, 0.6865 and 0.6900.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bullish. Price has found resistance around 1.3330 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3155, 1.3195, 1.3250, 1.3280, 1.3310 and 1.3330. If price closes above 1.3330, the USDCAD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend support area and the horizontal support at 1.0045. The USDCHF is up-trending but is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.0045-1.0095. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0030 and 0.9990.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The USDJPY has swung below the moving averages and the trend support area, signalling that the recent uptrend could be over. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.60, 109.65, 110.00, 110.10, 110.65 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved off the range support area. Price continues to range between 1302.95 and 1315.15 and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they are tight and are crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around 1325.25.

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