TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 14, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around 0.7085 and has since been bullish. The AUDUSD has formed a higher swing high and a higher swing low and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7105, 0.7085, 0.7065 and 0.7055. The AUDUSD may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.7130, 0.7145, 0.7195 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8700, 0.8715, 0.8730, 0.8745, 0.8790 and 0.8815.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the previous channel resistance area. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1255, 1.1300, 1.1340 and 1.1410.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has found support around 1.2845 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2845, 1.2890, 1.2945, 1.2975 and 1.3055. If the GBPUSD closes below 1.2845, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6855, 0.6865, 0.6900 and 0.6935.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 1.3195 and then reversed around the moving averages. The USDCAD is forming a downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3250, 1.3285, 1.3310 and 1.3330. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 1.3195, 1.3155 and 1.3075.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now finding resistance around 1.0090 (as also suggested). The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support areas, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0045, 1.0030 and 0.9990. Price may continue to find resistance around 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support areas, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.65, 110.35, 110.10 and 110.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US retail sales and PPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and range between 1302.95 and 1315.15. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1325.25.

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