TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 13, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish. Price has moved above recent swing highs and the moving averages, signalling that the bullish momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7105 and 0.7085. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7145, 0.7160, 0.7195 and 0.7205.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8790 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8660, 0.8715, 0.8730, 0.8790 and 0.8815.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The EURUSD has swung above the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the recent downtrend could now be over. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1295 and 1.1265. A move higher could find resistance around 1.1390, 1.1410, 1.1435 and 1.1445.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. The GBPUSD has since closed above the channel resistance area and the moving averages, signalling that the recent downtrend may now be over. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2845, 1.2890, 1.2975, 1.3015 and 1.3055.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6800, 0.6820, 0.6855, 0.6865, 0.6900 and 0.6935.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the RBNZ will speak at 1910 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has formed a lower swing low and a lower swing high and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3250, 1.3285 and 1.3310. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3205 and 1.3155.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. The USDCHF is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0030 and 0.9990. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.10 and 110.00. Price may continue to find resistance around 110.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been reversing off the range resistance area. Price is indecisive and is ranging between 1302.95 and 1315.15. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

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