TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 12, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.7085. The moving averages are tightening and becoming less bearish, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – price may attempt a bullish move. A move higher may find resistance around 0.7105, 0.7120, 0.7145 and 0.7160. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.7065 and 0.7060.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move sideways and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8660, 0.8715, 0.8730, 0.8790 and 0.8815.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1300 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending withing a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1355 and 1.1390. The EURUSD may find support around the recent swing low at 1.1270 and the channel support area.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now down-trending again. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.2890, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2975 and 1.3015.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1300 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6735, 0.6770 and 0.6800.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today. The RBNZ will release a monetary policy summary and a rate statement at 0100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is struggling to swing higher and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the recent uptrend could be coming to an end. The USDCAD is now looking indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3155, 1.3205, 1.3250, 1.3285, 1.3310, 1.3325 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF closed above 1.0030 and has since been bullish. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0030, 0.9990 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 110.10 and 110.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. GOLD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1302.95 and 1315.15. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1325.25.

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