TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 11, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price has since moved higher and is retracing some of the recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could attempt a move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7115, 0.7145 and 0.7160. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7085 and 0.7065.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been moving sideways – price is indecisive (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8815, 0.8790, 0.8730, 0.8715 and 0.8660. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the EURGBP may become bearish.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

UK manufacturing production and GDP figures will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the EURUSD could continue to move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1355, 1.1390 and 1.1410. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support and recent lows at 1.1295.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has become indecisive (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The GBPUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2890 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2975. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3015 and 1.3055. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around 1.2835.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

UK manufacturing production and GDP figures will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been slightly bullish. Price is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the NZDUSD could attempt another bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800 and 0.6820. Price could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6735 and 0.6705.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bearish. Price is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the current upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3250 and 1.3205. The USDCAD may find resistance around 1.3285, 1.3325 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9910, 0.9920, 0.9970, 0.9985, 0.9990 and 1.0030. If the USDCHF closes above 1.0030, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between 109.55 and 110.15. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish and has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1302.95, 1310.15, 1315.15 and 1325.25.

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