TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 07, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7115, 0.7145 and 0.7160. Price could find support around 0.7085.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8790 and 0.8815. A bearish move may find support around 0.8730 and 0.8715.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The BOE will release an inflation report and a monetary policy summary at 1200 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Governor of the BOE at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the bearish momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1390, 1.1410, 1.1435 and 1.1445. The EURUSD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1345 and 1.1295.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may continue to move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around either of the trend resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2970, 1.2985, 1.3015 and 1.3055. A strong move lower may find support around 1.2835.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The BOE will release an inflation report and a monetary policy summary at 1200 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Governor of the BOE at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bearish and has moved lower. Price has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6820 and 0.6855 and around the bearish moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD found resistance around 1.3205. Price has since swung higher though. Price action has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the potential trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3205 and 1.3155. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3285, 1.3305 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the previous consolidation resistance area and the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0015, 0.9990 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.10, 109.60, 109.65, 109.90, 110.00 and 110.10. If the USDJPY closes above 110.10, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has swung lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and also a bearish channel, suggesting that GOLD could move lower. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady. Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1310.15 and 1315.15. Price could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1295.55 and 1287.30.

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