TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 05, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7145, 0.7160, 0.7195, 0.7200, 0.7270 and 0.7290.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0130 UTC. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been moving sideways and continues to be indecisive. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8715 and the recent swing high at 0.8790. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8660 and 0.8620. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8860 and 0.8880. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURGBP could break to the upside.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1345, 1.1390, 1.1410, 1.1435, 1.1445, 1.1475 and 1.1505.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD reversed around the moving averages and has since moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is bearish and has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3055, 1.3150, 1.3190 and 1.3210. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 1.3015, 1.2985 and 1.2835.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the previous swing high at 0.6865. The NZDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6820, 0.6855, 0.6865 and 0.6935. If price closes above the resistance at 0.6935, the NZDUSD may continue to uptrend.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3120, 1.3155, 1.3205 and 1.3230. The USDCAD could stall or reverse off the recent lows at 1.3075.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.9910 and 0.9990. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the USDJPY could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 109.65, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 109.15. Price could find resistance around 109.90 and 110.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. The US President will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is finding resistance around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. If the bearish retrace move continues, long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous consolidation resistance at 1295.55. GOLD may continue to find resistance around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1325.25.

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