TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 04, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7220 and 0.7200. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the identified diagonal resistance area, around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7270 and 0.7290.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

An Australian retail sales figure will be released at 0030 UTC. This is followed by a RBA rate statement at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has retracing some of the recent downtrend. Price is now looking indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are starting to move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8620, 0.8660, 0.8715, 0.8765, 0.8790, 0.8860 and 0.8880.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are tightening – signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1345, 1.1390, 1.1410, 1.1435, 1.1445, 1.1475, 1.1485 and 1.5005.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD has formed a series of lower swing highs and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2985, 1.3015, 1.3045, 1.3055, 1.3150, 1.3190 and 1.3210.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6870, 0.6855 and 0.6820. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.6935.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3120, 1.3155, 1.3205 and 1.3230. Price may find support around the recent lows at 1.3075.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9910 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9990. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 108.55, 109.10, 109.65 and 109.90. If the USDJPY closes above 109.90, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has formed a bullish swing high and the moving averages are bullish. Price is also above a recent consolidation – all suggesting that GOLD could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the consolidation resistance at 1295.50. An attempt to swing higher could find resistance around either of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1325.25.

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