Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 04-08.02.2019


EUR/USD

The Euro continues trading within the local range, where the large volume accumulation is concentrated. The boundaries of the consolidation are the support level 1.1267 and the resistance level 1.1585.

Thus, the best solution with the Euro is just to wait for a confident and rapid exit of the price from the consolidation and only after that we can open new deals. The breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market.

GBP/USD

The Pound corrected downwards on Friday and is now trading inside the support level 1.3069 – 1.3102. The large volume is concentrated in this range, so we can identify 2 possible trading scenarios.

The first scenario: a breakdown of this mark on the large volume, which will allow us to open short positions. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The second scenario: a sharp rebound of the price up on the large volume, which would be an excellent bullish signal. A stop loss should be placed under the support level. The potential of the deal is more than 110 points.

USD/JPY

The Yen showed a significant and rapid growth on the large volume on Friday. Now the price is trading near the resistance level 109.64 – 109.73. Thus, the price has almost completely absorbed the recent fall. Given these factors, we can consider a scenario of the breakout of this mark, which will allow us to open long positions. The movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continued its decline and broke down the previous support level, which is an excellent bearish signal. It is also necessary to highlight the new resistance level 1.3160. Considering all the factors, we should consider extremely short positions. Sales can be opened after a slight price correction upwards to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance. The potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar corrected slightly on Friday, but is still near the resistance level 0.7292. Given the recent sharp growth of the price on the large volume, we can consider a breakout of this mark, which will allow us to open long positions with this currency pair. The growth should be sharp and on the large volume. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 110 points.

XAU/USD

Gold also smoothly corrected downwards, but is still trading near the resistance level 1325.80. Given the presence of a strong local uptrend, we should give preference to long positions.

However, we can open purchases only after a confident and sharp breakout of the resistance level. The movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal to enter the market. A stop loss should be placed slightly below the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The sentiment: this indicator fully confirms our trading scenarios (trade against the “crowd”), which is an excellent additional signal. As with both the Euro and Pound, we should give a slight advantage to purchases (based on the sentiment), but it is worth entering the market only after the appearance of a strong confirming signal.

The best deals: USD/JPY, USD/CAD
Potentially good deals: AUD/USD, XAU/USD
While out of the market: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

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