TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 30, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since moved higher. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7115, 0.7145, 0.7160, 0.7200, 0.7220 and 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the previous trend resistance area and the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.8760, 0.8860 and 0.8880.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.1450. The EURUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1345, 1.1390, 1.1450, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is finding support around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher. Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3015 and 1.2985. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1.3210.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.6820 and 0.6800 and around the trend support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6855 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3180, 1.3205, 1.3230, 1.3240, 1.3285, 1.3305 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the diagonal resistance area. The USDCHF has since been bullish though and has moved above the resistance. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.9910, 0.9970 and 0.9985. If the USDCHF closes above the horizontal resistance at 0.9985, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 109.10 and 109.90. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal level at 109.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A FOMC statement and rate announcement is scheduled for 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1303.05, 1296.95 and 1295.55.

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